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Supply Drop Stats and Algorithm Uncovered – What are the chances?

Supply Drop Stats and Algorithm Uncovered – What are the chances?

Since Activision and Sledgehammer Games are being so tight lipped on what the chances are of getting certain categories / items in Supply Drops, with the help of some of our Twitter followers we’ve ran our own sample to find out.

We analysed over 110 random Supply Drops with over 240 items. Please note this is a sample and variance will come into play.
Mid-way through the sample the stats were very similar to what they finished, suggesting it to be accurate to the actual probabilities.

As expected the most common items are Enlisted, followed by Professional and the rarest are Elite.

Here are some stats below:

Chances of a single Item Being:
Enlisted: 55%
Professional: 30%
Elite: 15%

Weapon: 35%
Reinforcement: 20%
Apparel: 45%

Chances of getting at least 1 Elite Weapon in a Drop? 11%

Chances of getting at least 2 Elite Weapons in a Drop? 2%

Chances of getting 1, 2 or 3 items in one drop?
1: 15%
2: 34%
3: 51%

Average Number of items in one drop? 2.21 items

We’ll be looking to expand this study in the future with more data and statistics. How do you get on with your Supply Drops? Comment Below.

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6 comments

  1. ive found 2 ways that the supply drops have happened for me.. going 0 n 3 or 0 n 4 early on increased the likelihood.. or trying for a long time to kill one player but coming up short after emptying an entire mag or the gun, and still failing to get the kill has gotten me supply drops before… kind of like a parting gift, sorry you didnt win, but you did.

  2. Thank you so much for making this. I’ve been interested in knowing how the supply drop thing even works. :)

  3. if i do get an elite, 90 percent of the time its one i have already. dissappointing

  4. In the latest 23 supply drops I never got more than two items, none of which was elite…
    It’s really sad coz I’m not a good player and I can only use enlisted weapons…

  5. I got 3 Elite guns in one drop. KF5 Spanner, MP11 Goliath and the RW1 Rail Driver. There’s only a 1% chance of getting 3. Holy fuck.

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